Western intelligence officials believe the attack, which took place in July, was a trial run by Russian agents who planned to place similar bombs on flights to the United States.
Western officials suspect Moscow was behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia. And German and U.S. officials say they foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer and a major supplier of artillery shells to the Ukrainian army.
While some governments — especially in Nordic and Baltic countries — have tried to raise the alarm, the collective response from the EU and NATO has so far been notably tame.
“We are simply too polite,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on the sidelines of a NATO summit in July. “They are attacking us every day now.”
“Why do we call it hybrid? Because basically when you call it hybrid you don’t need to do anything about it,” Landsbergis told a security conference in Riga last month. “If you call it terrorism, then it implies reaction.”
Instead, the Kremlin appears to be slowly ratcheting up the pressure to see what it can get away with. “Russia is testing the limits of Article 5 to stir up uncertainty,” Roderich Kiesewetter, a German lawmaker and former general staff officer in the German military, said earlier this year.
For example, more than three months after France’s railroads were sabotaged ahead of the Paris Olympics, the country’s intelligence services are still investigating whether Moscow is behind the attack, according to Le Monde.
the French government has accused Russia of being behind an online campaign to create panic about the proliferation of bed bugs in Paris and linking the outbreak to the arrival of Ukrainian refugees.
“If we miss this opportunity, Russia will only gain more traction,” Kohv said. “We have to remember that they’re basically mimicking the Soviet Union Cold War sabotage doctrine.”
In response, the Kremlin has turned to recruiting so-called disposable agents, sometimes via Telegram channels. They are mostly Russian-speaking, IT-savvy young men between 20 and 30, often with a criminal background. Some are ideologically motivated, others do it for money, paid in cryptocurrencies.
“We are asleep,” said von Loringhoven. “Aggressive behavior has to have political costs.”
Europe is trying Appeasement again.